Match context

The upcoming match between South Shields and Merthyr Town is scheduled for 22.08.2026 14:00 in National League - North. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

South Shields recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWLLWLDW. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Merthyr Town recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLWLWLLDWL. The averages are 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 2 head-to-head matches, South Shields recorded 1 wins, there were 0 draws, and Merthyr Town recorded 1 wins. The average total was 4.50 goals per match. Both teams scored in 100% of those matches, while 100% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 100%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as South Shields to win with 62% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 61.71%, 20.52% and 17.77%. The model momentum difference is 43.94 points in favour of South Shields. The input data quality score is 90/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.44 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -11.14%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair South Shields +0.5 / Merthyr Town -0.5 supports Merthyr Town by an average 1.03 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (Bet365) with up to 2 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Merthyr Town away from home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 0.00 yellow cards, 1.00 red cards and 1.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 100.0%. Season card data is available for 1 of 3 completed matches (33.3% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between South Shields and Merthyr Town ended 1-1. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Merthyr Town away from home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 0 yellow cards, 1 red cards and 1 total cards per match. In this game, Merthyr Town received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 100%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Merthyr Town at -0.5. The stored market movement was 1.03 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 1-1, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 7 verifiable pre-match indicators, 3 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.