Match context

The upcoming match between Northampton and Brighton U21 is scheduled for 18.08.2026 18:00 in EFL Trophy. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Northampton recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLWDWDLLLL. The averages are 1 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Brighton U21 recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLWWWWDWWL. The averages are 2.20 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 1 head-to-head matches, Northampton recorded 0 wins, there were 0 draws, and Brighton U21 recorded 1 wins. The average total was 3 goals per match. Both teams scored in 100% of those matches, while 100% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Northampton to win with 61% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 60.87%, 21.74% and 17.39%. The model momentum difference is 43.48 points in favour of Northampton. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.50 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -8.70%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Northampton 0 / Brighton U21 0 supports Northampton by an average 1.37 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 3 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 19, score 82/100, 81.64% group success rate across 1356 observations).

What happened in the match

The match between Northampton and Brighton U21 ended 0-3. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Northampton at 0. The stored market movement was 1.37 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 0-3, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 19. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 6 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 1 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.