Match context

The upcoming match between Atlético Choloma and CD Marathon is scheduled for 16.08.2026 21:00 in Liga Nacional. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Atlético Choloma are in position 11 with 0 points after 1 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 0 scored and 2 conceded. The stored form sequence is LL. CD Marathon are in position 3 with 4 points after 1 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 1 scored and 0 conceded. The stored form sequence is DW.

Recent results

Atlético Choloma recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLWLWLWLWD. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. CD Marathon recorded 4 wins, 5 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDWDDDDWLW. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 0.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 10% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Atlético Choloma recorded 2 wins, there were 6 draws, and CD Marathon recorded 2 wins. The average total was 1.90 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Under 2.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as CD Marathon to win with 60% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 16.97%, 22.84% and 60.19%. The model momentum difference is 43.22 points in favour of CD Marathon. The input data quality score is 91/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.48 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.92%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Atlético Choloma 0 / CD Marathon 0 supports CD Marathon by an average 5.73 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Pinnacle, 1xBet) with up to 5 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 2). At least one goal in the match (quota 12.20, score 88/100, 87.50% group success rate across 16 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for CD Marathon away from home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 1.00 red cards and 3.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 100.0%. Season card data is available for 1 of 2 completed matches (50.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Atlético Choloma and CD Marathon ended 0-1. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 1.9 goals, while this match produced 1. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for CD Marathon away from home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 1 red cards and 3 total cards per match. In this game, CD Marathon received 4 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 4 in total. That was 1 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 100% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 100%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Atlético Choloma at 0. The stored market movement was 5.73 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 0-1, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Under 2.5. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 12.2. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 12 verifiable pre-match indicators, 8 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.