Match context

The upcoming match between SC Freiburg W and Mainz 05 W is scheduled for 13.09.2026 16:30 in Frauen Bundesliga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
SC Freiburg W are in position 8 with 4 points after 3 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 3 scored and 5 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWD. Mainz 05 W are in position 13 with 0 points after 3 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 1 scored and 8 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLL.

Recent results

SC Freiburg W recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWDDLWLLLW. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 2 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Mainz 05 W recorded 7 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLWWWWWWW. The averages are 3 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as SC Freiburg W to win with 73% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 73.10%, 16.99% and 9.91%. The model momentum difference is 63.19 points in favour of SC Freiburg W. The input data quality score is 87/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.22 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.81%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair SC Freiburg W +0.25 / Mainz 05 W -0.25 supports SC Freiburg W by an average 2.71 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 3 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for SC Freiburg W at home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 3 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between SC Freiburg W and Mainz 05 W ended 3-0. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for SC Freiburg W at home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, SC Freiburg W received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported SC Freiburg W at +0.25. The stored market movement was 2.71 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 3-0, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 4 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 0 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.