Match context

The upcoming match between AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis is scheduled for 05.09.2026 18:00 in Super League 1. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

AEK Athens FC recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDWWDDWWLW. The averages are 2.40 goals scored and 0.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. Aris Thessalonikis recorded 9 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWLWWWWWW. The averages are 2.50 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, AEK Athens FC recorded 5 wins, there were 5 draws, and Aris Thessalonikis recorded 0 wins. The average total was 2.30 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 80%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 3.5 goals — 60%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 8.70; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 92%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as AEK Athens FC to win with 68% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 67.61%, 20.73% and 11.66%. The model momentum difference is 55.94 points in favour of AEK Athens FC. The input data quality score is 86/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.38 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.70%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair AEK Athens FC +0.25 / Aris Thessalonikis -0.25 supports Aris Thessalonikis by an average 1.37 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 2 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for AEK Athens FC at home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 1.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 2 of 2 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Aris Thessalonikis away from home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 3.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 3.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 2 of 2 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis ended 5-0. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The verified final statistics recorded 4 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.3 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 100%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 8.7 total corners. The match recorded 4 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 7.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 8.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 92%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for AEK Athens FC at home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 1 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1 total cards per match. In this game, AEK Athens FC received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 1 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Aris Thessalonikis away from home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 3 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 3 total cards per match. In this game, Aris Thessalonikis received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 3 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 100% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Aris Thessalonikis at -0.25. The stored market movement was 1.37 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 5-0, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 13 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 8 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.