Match context

The upcoming match between Asteras Tripolis and AEK Athens FC is scheduled for 13.09.2026 16:00 in Super League 1. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Asteras Tripolis are in position 13 with 0 points after 3 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 1 scored and 6 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLL. AEK Athens FC are in position 4 with 7 points after 3 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 10 scored and 1 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDW.

Recent results

Asteras Tripolis recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLLLLDDWDW. The averages are 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 20% finished with over 2.5 goals. AEK Athens FC recorded 7 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWDWWDDWW. The averages are 2.60 goals scored and 0.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Asteras Tripolis recorded 0 wins, there were 2 draws, and AEK Athens FC recorded 8 wins. The average total was 2.40 goals per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 40%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 9.10; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 96%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as AEK Athens FC to win with 68% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 10.50%, 21.00% and 68.49%. The model momentum difference is 57.99 points in favour of AEK Athens FC. The input data quality score is 95/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.38 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.48%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 1.90).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Asteras Tripolis at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 3.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 3.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 3 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for AEK Athens FC away from home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 3 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Asteras Tripolis and AEK Athens FC ended 1-1. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 13 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.4 goals, while this match produced 2. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 9.1 total corners. The match recorded 13 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 96%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Asteras Tripolis at home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 3 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 3 total cards per match. In this game, Asteras Tripolis received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 100% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for AEK Athens FC away from home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, AEK Athens FC received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 1.9. The actual market outcome was Under 2.5. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 13 verifiable pre-match indicators, 9 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.