Match context

The upcoming match between Vestri and Rīgas FS is scheduled for 30.07.2026 18:00 in UEFA Europa Conference League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Vestri recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLLLDDWWL. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Rīgas FS recorded 9 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWWWDWWW. The averages are 2.40 goals scored and 0.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 1 head-to-head matches, Vestri recorded 0 wins, there were 0 draws, and Rīgas FS recorded 1 wins. The average total was 5 goals per match. Both teams scored in 100% of those matches, while 100% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 100%; Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Rīgas FS to win with 74% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 9.99%, 16.34% and 73.67%. The model momentum difference is 63.69 points in favour of Rīgas FS. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.22 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.12%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 0.5 (odds 21, score 84/100, 84.35% bucket win rate across 888 observations).

What happened in the match

The match between Vestri and Rīgas FS ended 1-1. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 21. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 6 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 1 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.