Match context

The upcoming match between Zira and Paide is scheduled for 30.07.2026 16:00 in UEFA Europa Conference League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Zira recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWWLWLDWDD. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Paide recorded 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLWDWDWWDD. The averages are 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 1 head-to-head matches, Zira recorded 0 wins, there were 0 draws, and Paide recorded 1 wins. The average total was 1 goals per match. Both teams scored in 0% of those matches, while 0% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Zira to win with 76% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 75.86%, 16.55% and 7.59%. The model momentum difference is 68.28 points in favour of Zira. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.20 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -8.97%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Zira 0 / Paide 0 supports Zira by an average 2.31 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 3 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.22, score 78/100, 78.05% bucket win rate across 205 observations).

What happened in the match

The match between Zira and Paide ended 1-1. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.22. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 6 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.