Match context

The upcoming match between Lusitano Évora 1911 and SC Covilha is scheduled for 12.09.2026 16:00 in Liga 3. The listed venue is Campo Estrela, Évora. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Lusitano Évora 1911 are in position 6 with 4 points. The stored form sequence is LWDL. SC Covilha are in position 8 with 4 points. The stored form sequence is LLDW.

Recent results

Lusitano Évora 1911 recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLWDLDLWWW. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. SC Covilha recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLDWDDLWW. The averages are 0.80 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 6 head-to-head matches, Lusitano Évora 1911 recorded 4 wins, there were 2 draws, and SC Covilha recorded 0 wins. The average total was 2 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 33.3% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 100%; Under 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 50%; Both teams to score — 30%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 30%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Lusitano Évora 1911 or draw (1X) with 82% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 55.09%, 26.73% and 18.18%. The model momentum difference is 36.91 points in favour of Lusitano Évora 1911. The input data quality score is 86/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.11 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.18%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Lusitano Évora 1911 at home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 3.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 3.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 4 completed matches (75.0% coverage). The discipline profile for SC Covilha away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 3.00 yellow cards, 0.50 red cards and 3.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%, 50.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 50.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 4 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Lusitano Évora 1911 and SC Covilha ended 2-2. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 6 head-to-head meetings averaged 2 goals, while this match produced 4. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 6 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Lusitano Évora 1911 at home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 3 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 3 total cards per match. In this game, Lusitano Évora 1911 received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. The total was effectively equal to the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 100% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for SC Covilha away from home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 3 yellow cards, 0.5 red cards and 3.5 total cards per match. In this game, SC Covilha received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 2.5 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 100% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 50%.

Summary

Of 7 verifiable pre-match indicators, 0 aligned with the final result and 7 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.