Match context

The upcoming match between Al Sadd and Al-Gharafa is scheduled for 05.09.2026 16:15 in Stars League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Al Sadd are in position 1 with 6 points. The stored form sequence is WW. Al-Gharafa are in position 8 with 3 points. The stored form sequence is LW.

Recent results

Al Sadd recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWLWWWWD. The averages are 3.30 goals scored and 1.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 90% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals. Al-Gharafa recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLWLDWDDLL. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 90% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Al Sadd recorded 6 wins, there were 3 draws, and Al-Gharafa recorded 1 wins. The average total was 4.20 goals per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Both teams to score — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 2.5 goals — 90%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 70%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 10.10; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Al Sadd to win with 64% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 63.58%, 19.14% and 17.28%. The model momentum difference is 46.29 points in favour of Al Sadd. The input data quality score is 78/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.43 with 1xBet. The stored estimated EV is -9.09%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 20, score 87/100, 86.98% group success rate across 192 observations). Both Teams Score — Yes (odds 1.36).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Al Sadd at home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 1.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 1 of 2 completed matches (50.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Al Sadd and Al-Gharafa ended 4-1. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 10 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 4.2 goals, while this match produced 5. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 90%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 90%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 10.1 total corners. The match recorded 10 corners in total. The result remained within one corner of the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Al Sadd at home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 1 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1 total cards per match. In this game, Al Sadd received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 20. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was BTTS Yes at odds of 1.36. The actual market outcome was BTTS Yes. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 15 verifiable pre-match indicators, 15 aligned with the final result and 0 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.