Match context

The upcoming match between Buriram United and Rayong FC is scheduled for 10.10.2026 11:30 in Thai League 1. The listed venue is Chang Arena, Buriram. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Buriram United are in position 2 with 7 points after 3 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 5 scored and 2 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDW. Rayong FC are in position 3 with 7 points after 3 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 5 scored and 3 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWW.

Recent results

Buriram United recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWDDWLWWWL. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Rayong FC recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWWDLWDLLW. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 2 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 8 head-to-head matches, Buriram United recorded 6 wins, there were 1 draws, and Rayong FC recorded 1 wins. The average total was 3.63 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 75% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 10.10; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Buriram United to win with 74% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 74.41%, 16.51% and 9.08%. The model momentum difference is 65.34 points in favour of Buriram United. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.22 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.21%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Buriram United 0 / Rayong FC 0 supports Rayong FC by an average 2.15 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 2 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Buriram United at home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 1.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 3 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Rayong FC away from home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 1.00 red cards and 3.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 100.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 3 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Buriram United and Rayong FC ended 3-2. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 11 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 8 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.63 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 8 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 75%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 10.1 total corners. The match recorded 11 corners in total. The result remained within one corner of the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Buriram United at home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 1 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1 total cards per match. In this game, Buriram United received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 1 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Rayong FC away from home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 1 red cards and 3 total cards per match. In this game, Rayong FC received 2 yellow cards and 1 red cards, 3 in total. The total was effectively equal to the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 100% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 100%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Rayong FC at 0. The stored market movement was 2.15 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 3-2, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 13 verifiable pre-match indicators, 8 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.