Match context

The upcoming match between Qarabag and Keshla FC is scheduled for 17.08.2026 15:30 in Premyer Liqa. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Qarabag recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLDDWWWWWD. The averages are 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Keshla FC recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWLLWLDDLW. The averages are 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Qarabag recorded 7 wins, there were 2 draws, and Keshla FC recorded 1 wins. The average total was 2.10 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Qarabag or draw (1X) with 80% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 58.68%, 21.37% and 19.95%. The model momentum difference is 38.73 points in favour of Qarabag. The input data quality score is 94/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.12 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.34%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 19, score 82/100, 81.64% group success rate across 1351 observations).

What happened in the match

The match between Qarabag and Keshla FC ended 3-1. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.1 goals, while this match produced 4. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 19. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.