Match context

The upcoming match between Águila and Fuerte San Francisco is scheduled for 30.08.2026 21:00 in Primera Division. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Águila are in position 7 with 3 points after 3 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 3 scored and 3 conceded. The stored form sequence is DDD. Fuerte San Francisco are in position 11 with 2 points after 3 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 3 scored and 7 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLD.

Recent results

Águila recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLDDDWWLW. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Fuerte San Francisco recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWDDLDLWWL. The averages are 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Águila recorded 5 wins, there were 5 draws, and Fuerte San Francisco recorded 0 wins. The average total was 2.50 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Over 1.5 goals — 50%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%; Under 2.5 goals — 50%; Both teams to score — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Águila or draw (1X) with 81% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 55.74%, 25.48% and 18.78%. The model momentum difference is 36.97 points in favour of Águila. The input data quality score is 86/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.12 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.03%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Águila 0 / Fuerte San Francisco 0 supports Fuerte San Francisco by an average 2.35 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Pinnacle, 1xBet) with up to 4 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Fuerte San Francisco away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 0.00 yellow cards, 1.00 red cards and 1.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 100.0%. Season card data is available for 2 of 6 completed matches (33.3% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Águila and Fuerte San Francisco ended 4-2. The game produced 6 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.5 goals, while this match produced 6. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Fuerte San Francisco at 0. The stored market movement was 2.35 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 4-2, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 1 aligned with the final result and 7 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.