Match context

The upcoming match between IFK Luleå and Boden is scheduled for 12.08.2026 17:00 in Division 2 - Norrland. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
IFK Luleå are in position 3 with 25 points after 13 matches. The season record is 9 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 36 scored and 17 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWLWW. Boden are in position 4 with 17 points after 13 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses. The goals record is 15 scored and 17 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLDWD.

Recent results

IFK Luleå recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWLWLWWLWD. The averages are 2.30 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Boden recorded 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLDLDWDWDD. The averages are 1 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, IFK Luleå recorded 2 wins, there were 5 draws, and Boden recorded 3 wins. The average total was 2.80 goals per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as IFK Luleå to win with 62% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 61.51%, 20.88% and 17.61%. The model momentum difference is 43.90 points in favour of IFK Luleå. The input data quality score is 88/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.46 with Marathonbet. The stored estimated EV is -10.20%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

What happened in the match

The match between IFK Luleå and Boden ended 0-1. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.8 goals, while this match produced 1. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 3 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.