Match context

The upcoming match between Neftchi Baku and Araz is scheduled for 23.08.2026 16:45 in Premyer Liqa. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Neftchi Baku are in position 2 with 3 points. The stored form sequence is W. Araz are in position 7 with 1 points. The stored form sequence is D.

Recent results

Neftchi Baku recorded 9 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWLWWWWWWW. The averages are 2.10 goals scored and 0.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. Araz recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWWLLDLLLW. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Neftchi Baku recorded 3 wins, there were 4 draws, and Araz recorded 3 wins. The average total was 2.50 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%; Under 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Neftchi Baku to win with 62% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 61.61%, 23.51% and 14.89%. The model momentum difference is 46.72 points in favour of Neftchi Baku. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.45 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.67%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Neftchi Baku -0.25 / Araz +0.25 supports Neftchi Baku by an average 1.87 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 4 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 1.90).

What happened in the match

The match between Neftchi Baku and Araz ended 5-0. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 4 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.5 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Neftchi Baku at -0.25. The stored market movement was 1.87 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 5-0, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 1.9. The actual market outcome was Over 2.5. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.