Match context

The upcoming match between Sumqayıt and Qarabag is scheduled for 31.08.2026 16:15 in Premyer Liqa. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Sumqayıt are in position 10 with 0 points. The stored form sequence is L. Qarabag are in position 4 with 3 points. The stored form sequence is W.

Recent results

Sumqayıt recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 7 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLWLWWLLL. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 2 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. Qarabag recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWWWLDDWWW. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Sumqayıt recorded 2 wins, there were 0 draws, and Qarabag recorded 8 wins. The average total was 3.40 goals per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Qarabag to win with 64% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 13.83%, 21.93% and 64.23%. The model momentum difference is 50.40 points in favour of Qarabag. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.40 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.07%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Sumqayıt at home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 1.00 yellow cards, 1.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 100.0%. Season card data is available for 1 of 1 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Sumqayıt and Qarabag ended 0-1. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.4 goals, while this match produced 1. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Sumqayıt at home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 1 yellow cards, 1 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Sumqayıt received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 100%.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.