Match context

The upcoming match between Mil-Muğan and Neftchi Baku is scheduled for 11.09.2026 12:30 in Premyer Liqa. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Mil-Muğan are in position 8 with 4 points after 4 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 3 scored and 5 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWLD. Neftchi Baku are in position 4 with 9 points after 4 matches. The season record is 3 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 12 scored and 3 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLWW.

Recent results

Mil-Muğan recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWLDDLDWLW. The averages are 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Neftchi Baku recorded 8 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLWWWLWWWW. The averages are 2.20 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 2 head-to-head matches, Mil-Muğan recorded 1 wins, there were 1 draws, and Neftchi Baku recorded 0 wins. The average total was 2.50 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Neftchi Baku to win with 63% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 15.58%, 21.33% and 63.09%. The model momentum difference is 47.51 points in favour of Neftchi Baku. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.42 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.41%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Mil-Muğan -0.25 / Neftchi Baku +0.25 supports Neftchi Baku by an average 2.12 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 2 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Neftchi Baku away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 3.00 yellow cards, 0.50 red cards and 3.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%, 50.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 50.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 4 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Mil-Muğan and Neftchi Baku ended 2-3. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 4 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Neftchi Baku away from home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 3 yellow cards, 0.5 red cards and 3.5 total cards per match. In this game, Neftchi Baku received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 2.5 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 100% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 50%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Neftchi Baku at +0.25. The stored market movement was 2.12 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 2-3, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 5 verifiable pre-match indicators, 3 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.