Match context

The upcoming match between Sumqayıt and Safa Baku is scheduled for 02.11.2026 15:00 in Premyer Liqa. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Sumqayıt are in position 9 with 8 points after 8 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses. The goals record is 12 scored and 13 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWWDD. Safa Baku are in position 11 with 3 points after 9 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 0 draws and 8 losses. The goals record is 5 scored and 17 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLLLL.

Recent results

Sumqayıt recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLWWDDLLLL. The averages are 2.60 goals scored and 1.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. Safa Baku recorded 2 wins, 0 draws and 8 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLLLLLLLWL. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Sumqayıt or draw (1X) with 80% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 53.70%, 26.37% and 19.93%. The model momentum difference is 33.77 points in favour of Sumqayıt. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.12 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.32%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Sumqayıt -0.5 / Safa Baku +0.5 supports Safa Baku by an average 1.75 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (Bet365) with up to 3 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Sumqayıt at home is based on 5 matches. The team averages 2.20 yellow cards, 0.20 red cards and 2.40 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 80.0%, 60.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 20.0%. Season card data is available for 8 of 8 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Safa Baku away from home is based on 5 matches. The team averages 2.20 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.20 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 60.0%, 40.0%, 20.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 7 of 9 completed matches (77.8% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Sumqayıt and Safa Baku ended 1-1. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Sumqayıt at home was based on 5 matches, with averages of 2.2 yellow cards, 0.2 red cards and 2.4 total cards per match. In this game, Sumqayıt received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.6 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 60% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 20%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Safa Baku away from home was based on 5 matches, with averages of 2.2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.2 total cards per match. In this game, Safa Baku received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.2 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 40% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Safa Baku at +0.5. The stored market movement was 1.75 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 1-1, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Even. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.