Match context

The upcoming match between Al Riyadh and Al-Nassr is scheduled for 21.08.2026 16:00 in Pro League. The listed venue is Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Riyadh. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Al Riyadh are in position 16 with 0 points. The stored form sequence is L. Al-Nassr are in position 1 with 3 points. The stored form sequence is W.

Recent results

Al Riyadh recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLWDWLLLWD. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Al-Nassr recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWLLWWLDWL. The averages are 2.10 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 6 head-to-head matches, Al Riyadh recorded 0 wins, there were 1 draws, and Al-Nassr recorded 5 wins. The average total was 3.33 goals per match. Both teams scored in 66.7% of those matches, while 66.7% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Al-Nassr to win with 73% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 11.37%, 15.83% and 72.80%. The model momentum difference is 61.42 points in favour of Al-Nassr. The input data quality score is 95/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.25 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.00%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 26, score 86/100, 85.71% group success rate across 420 observations).

What happened in the match

The match between Al Riyadh and Al-Nassr ended 0-4. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 6 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.33 goals, while this match produced 4. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 6 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 6 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 26. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.