Match context

The upcoming match between Al-Nassr and Al Taawon is scheduled for 28.08.2026 18:00 in Pro League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Al-Nassr are in position 1 with 9 points. The stored form sequence is WWW. Al Taawon are in position 12 with 2 points. The stored form sequence is DLD.

Recent results

Al-Nassr recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWLLWWLD. The averages are 2.30 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Al Taawon recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLWDLDLWLW. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Al-Nassr recorded 5 wins, there were 2 draws, and Al Taawon recorded 3 wins. The average total was 2.40 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 40%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 9.50; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Al-Nassr to win with 70% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 70.26%, 17.00% and 12.75%. The model momentum difference is 57.51 points in favour of Al-Nassr. The input data quality score is 92/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.27 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.77%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Al-Nassr 0 / Al Taawon 0 supports Al-Nassr by an average 1.07 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 7 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 23, score 80/100, 79.88% group success rate across 646 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Al-Nassr at home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 1.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 3 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Al Taawon away from home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 0.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 0.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 3 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Al-Nassr and Al Taawon ended 2-1. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 14 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.4 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 9.5 total corners. The match recorded 14 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Al-Nassr at home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 1 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1 total cards per match. In this game, Al-Nassr received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 1 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Al Taawon away from home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 0 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 0 total cards per match. In this game, Al Taawon received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Al Taawon at 0. The stored market movement was 1.07 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 2-1, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 23. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 15 verifiable pre-match indicators, 9 aligned with the final result and 6 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.