Match context

The upcoming match between Kilmarnock and Ayr Utd is scheduled for 14.08.2026 18:45 in League Cup. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Kilmarnock recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLDWWDWWWW. The averages are 2 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Ayr Utd recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWWWWWWWWL. The averages are 2.10 goals scored and 0.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 7 head-to-head matches, Kilmarnock recorded 4 wins, there were 0 draws, and Ayr Utd recorded 3 wins. The average total was 2.43 goals per match. Both teams scored in 42.9% of those matches, while 42.9% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%; Over 3.5 goals — 50%; Under 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Kilmarnock or draw (1X) with 81% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 57.24%, 23.48% and 19.28%. The model momentum difference is 37.96 points in favour of Kilmarnock. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.18 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -4.75%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Kilmarnock 0 / Ayr Utd 0 supports Ayr Utd by an average 3.33 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 12 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 1.90). Both Teams Score — Yes (odds 1.70).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Kilmarnock at home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 1.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 1 of 4 completed matches (25.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Kilmarnock and Ayr Utd ended 3-2. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 7 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.43 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 7 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 57.1%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 7 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 57.1%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Ayr Utd at 0. The stored market movement was 3.33 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 3-2, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 1.9. The actual market outcome was Over 2.5. The Premium signal was not confirmed. The stored Premium market was BTTS Yes at odds of 1.7. The actual market outcome was BTTS Yes. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 3 aligned with the final result and 7 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.