Match context

The upcoming match between Stenhousemuir and Motherwell is scheduled for 16.08.2026 13:00 in League Cup. The listed venue is Ochilview Park, Stenhousemuir. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Stenhousemuir recorded 4 wins, 5 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDDDWWLWDD. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Motherwell recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDDWWWLLWL. The averages are 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 1 head-to-head matches, Stenhousemuir recorded 0 wins, there were 0 draws, and Motherwell recorded 1 wins. The average total was 1 goals per match. Both teams scored in 0% of those matches, while 0% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 100%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Under 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 50%; Both teams to score — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Motherwell to win with 71% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 10.07%, 19.09% and 70.84%. The model momentum difference is 60.76 points in favour of Motherwell. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.28 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.33%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Stenhousemuir at home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 3.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 3.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 2 of 4 completed matches (50.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Stenhousemuir and Motherwell ended 1-0. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Stenhousemuir at home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 3 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 3 total cards per match. In this game, Stenhousemuir received 4 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 4 in total. That was 1 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 100% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Summary

Of 5 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 1 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.