Match context

The upcoming match between FC Serpa and Vitoria Setubal is scheduled for 16.08.2026 16:00 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

FC Serpa recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLLLWDWDD. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Vitoria Setubal recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLWDWWWLDD. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 2 head-to-head matches, FC Serpa recorded 0 wins, there were 0 draws, and Vitoria Setubal recorded 2 wins. The average total was 3 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as draw or Vitoria Setubal (X2) with 81% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 19.03%, 27.81% and 53.16%. The model momentum difference is 34.14 points in favour of Vitoria Setubal. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.12 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.31%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair FC Serpa 0 / Vitoria Setubal 0 supports Vitoria Setubal by an average 6.25 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 3 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Both Teams Score — Yes (odds 1.87).

What happened in the match

The match between FC Serpa and Vitoria Setubal ended 4-2. The game produced 6 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Vitoria Setubal at 0. The stored market movement was 6.25 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 4-2, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was BTTS Yes at odds of 1.87. The actual market outcome was BTTS Yes. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 6 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.