Match context

The upcoming match between San Martin Formosa and 9 de Julio Rafaela is scheduled for 23.08.2026 19:00 in Torneo Federal A. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
San Martin Formosa are in position 4 with 30 points after 17 matches. The season record is 10 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses. The goals record is 27 scored and 20 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLDWW. 9 de Julio Rafaela are in position 14 with 25 points after 19 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 28 scored and 27 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLLWW.

Recent results

San Martin Formosa recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWWWWLDWWL. The averages are 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. 9 de Julio Rafaela recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDDLLLWWLD. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 8 head-to-head matches, San Martin Formosa recorded 4 wins, there were 1 draws, and 9 de Julio Rafaela recorded 3 wins. The average total was 2.38 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as San Martin Formosa or draw (1X) with 86% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 59.00%, 26.55% and 14.44%. The model momentum difference is 44.56 points in favour of San Martin Formosa. The input data quality score is 95/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.08 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -7.60%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair San Martin Formosa 0 / 9 de Julio Rafaela 0 supports San Martin Formosa by an average 2.36 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 3 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for San Martin Formosa at home is based on 4 matches. The team averages 2.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 75.0%, 25.0%, 25.0% and 25.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 10 of 20 completed matches (50.0% coverage). The discipline profile for 9 de Julio Rafaela away from home is based on 4 matches. The team averages 2.25 yellow cards, 0.50 red cards and 2.75 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 50.0%, 25.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 50.0%. Season card data is available for 12 of 21 completed matches (57.1% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between San Martin Formosa and 9 de Julio Rafaela ended 2-1. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 8 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.38 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for San Martin Formosa at home was based on 4 matches, with averages of 2.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.5 total cards per match. In this game, San Martin Formosa received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.5 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 25% of matches, 5+ in 25%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for 9 de Julio Rafaela away from home was based on 4 matches, with averages of 2.25 yellow cards, 0.5 red cards and 2.75 total cards per match. In this game, 9 de Julio Rafaela received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.75 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 50%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported San Martin Formosa at 0. The stored market movement was 2.36 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 2-1, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.