Match context

The upcoming match between Alvarado and Atenas is scheduled for 06.09.2026 18:00 in Torneo Federal A. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Alvarado are in position 5 with 27 points after 16 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 19 scored and 7 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWLWD. Atenas are in position 18 with 23 points after 17 matches. The season record is 6 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 12 scored and 14 conceded. The stored form sequence is DDLWD.

Recent results

Alvarado recorded 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDDWWDWLWD. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 0.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 20% finished with over 2.5 goals. Atenas recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDWWLDDLWD. The averages are 1 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Under 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 40%; Over 2.5 goals — 30%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Alvarado or draw (1X) with 84% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 55.03%, 28.76% and 16.21%. The model momentum difference is 38.82 points in favour of Alvarado. The input data quality score is 81/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.10 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -7.83%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

A current confirmed reversal signal is stored for Home -1. It is a market indicator rather than a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Alvarado at home is based on 6 matches. The team averages 1.83 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.83 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 66.7%, 16.7%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 14 of 21 completed matches (66.7% coverage). The discipline profile for Atenas away from home is based on 3 matches. The team averages 1.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 11 of 20 completed matches (55.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Alvarado and Atenas ended 3-2. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Alvarado at home was based on 6 matches, with averages of 1.83 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.83 total cards per match. In this game, Alvarado received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.17 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 16.7% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Atenas away from home was based on 3 matches, with averages of 1 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1 total cards per match. In this game, Atenas received 3 yellow cards and 1 red cards, 4 in total. That was 3 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Alvarado at -1. At the final score of 3-2, the line settled as a push. The result is neutral and is counted as neither confirmed nor unconfirmed.

Summary

Of 7 verifiable pre-match indicators, 3 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed, while 1 settled neutrally. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.