Match context

The upcoming match between Bartolomé Mitre and Gimnasia Chivilcoy is scheduled for 06.09.2026 18:30 in Torneo Federal A. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Bartolomé Mitre are in position 9 with 26 points after 17 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 13 scored and 8 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWLDD. Gimnasia Chivilcoy are in position 6 with 27 points after 19 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 17 scored and 12 conceded. The stored form sequence is DDWLW.

Recent results

Bartolomé Mitre recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLDLLWLDD. The averages are 0.30 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 20% finished with over 2.5 goals. Gimnasia Chivilcoy recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWDLDDDWLW. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 20% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 100%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Under 2.5 goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 50%; Both teams to score — 30%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Gimnasia Chivilcoy to win with 79% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 5.41%, 15.99% and 78.60%. The model momentum difference is 73.19 points in favour of Gimnasia Chivilcoy. The input data quality score is 85/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.17 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -8.04%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Bartolomé Mitre +0.25 / Gimnasia Chivilcoy -0.25 supports Gimnasia Chivilcoy by an average 1.49 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 7 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Combo (BTTS Yes + Over 2.5) — Yes (odds 3.25, score 74/100, 73.53% bucket win rate across 34 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Bartolomé Mitre at home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 1.71 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.71 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 42.9%, 28.6%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 10 of 21 completed matches (47.6% coverage). The discipline profile for Gimnasia Chivilcoy away from home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 2.86 yellow cards, 0.14 red cards and 3.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 85.7%, 42.9%, 42.9% and 28.6% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 14.3%. Season card data is available for 14 of 23 completed matches (60.9% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Bartolomé Mitre and Gimnasia Chivilcoy ended 0-1. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Bartolomé Mitre at home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 1.71 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.71 total cards per match. In this game, Bartolomé Mitre received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 1.29 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 28.6% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Gimnasia Chivilcoy away from home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 2.86 yellow cards, 0.14 red cards and 3 total cards per match. In this game, Gimnasia Chivilcoy received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 2 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 42.9% of matches, 5+ in 28.6%, and a red card in 14.3%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Gimnasia Chivilcoy at -0.25. The stored market movement was 1.49 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 0-1, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 at odds of 3.25. The actual market outcome was BTTS No + Under 2.5. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 7 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.