Match context

The upcoming match between San Martin Formosa and Sarmiento de La Banda is scheduled for 13.09.2026 19:00 in Torneo Federal A. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
San Martin Formosa are in position 4 with 30 points after 16 matches. The season record is 9 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses. The goals record is 25 scored and 19 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLDWW. Sarmiento de La Banda are in position 13 with 25 points after 16 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 17 scored and 15 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWLWW.

Recent results

San Martin Formosa recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWDWWWWLDW. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Sarmiento de La Banda recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLWLDDDWLW. The averages are 1 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 8 head-to-head matches, San Martin Formosa recorded 2 wins, there were 2 draws, and Sarmiento de La Banda recorded 4 wins. The average total was 1.75 goals per match. Both teams scored in 25% of those matches, while 12.5% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 50%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as San Martin Formosa or draw (1X) with 81% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 54.13%, 27.07% and 18.80%. The model momentum difference is 35.33 points in favour of San Martin Formosa. The input data quality score is 95/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.12 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.06%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for San Martin Formosa at home is based on 5 matches. The team averages 2.20 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.20 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 60.0%, 20.0%, 20.0% and 20.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 12 of 22 completed matches (54.5% coverage). The discipline profile for Sarmiento de La Banda away from home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 2.11 yellow cards, 0.11 red cards and 2.22 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 88.9%, 77.8%, 33.3%, 22.2% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 11.1%. Season card data is available for 14 of 22 completed matches (63.6% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between San Martin Formosa and Sarmiento de La Banda ended 3-0. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 8 head-to-head meetings averaged 1.75 goals, while this match produced 3. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 8 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 75%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 8 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 87.5%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for San Martin Formosa at home was based on 5 matches, with averages of 2.2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.2 total cards per match. In this game, San Martin Formosa received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.8 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 20% of matches, 5+ in 20%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Sarmiento de La Banda away from home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 2.11 yellow cards, 0.11 red cards and 2.22 total cards per match. In this game, Sarmiento de La Banda received 7 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 7 in total. That was 4.78 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 33.3% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 11.1%.

Summary

Of 7 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.