Match context

The upcoming match between Germinal de Rawson and Santamarina is scheduled for 12.08.2026 18:00 in Torneo Federal A. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Germinal de Rawson are in position 30 with 18 points after 17 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 9 scored and 15 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLLWD. Santamarina are in position 36 with 13 points after 17 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses. The goals record is 9 scored and 18 conceded. The stored form sequence is LDLLD.

Recent results

Germinal de Rawson recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWLLLWDDLW. The averages are 0.50 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 20% finished with over 2.5 goals. Santamarina recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLDLLDWLL. The averages are 0.30 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 10% of those matches, while 10% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Germinal de Rawson recorded 3 wins, there were 3 draws, and Santamarina recorded 4 wins. The average total was 2 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Under 2.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 1.5 goals — 50%; Over 2.5 goals — 20%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Germinal de Rawson or draw (1X) with 85% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 57.07%, 28.00% and 14.93%. The model momentum difference is 42.14 points in favour of Germinal de Rawson. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.11 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.58%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Both Teams Score — Yes (odds 2.39). Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2).

What happened in the match

The match between Germinal de Rawson and Santamarina ended 5-1. The game produced 6 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2 goals, while this match produced 6. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 90%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was BTTS Yes at odds of 2.39. The actual market outcome was BTTS Yes. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Even. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 2 aligned with the final result and 8 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.