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🔁 Head-to-Head

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🟢 Gimnasia Concepción 🟡 Draws Defensores de Vilelas 🔴
Date Match Score

Pre-match analysis

This analysis is locked and its content can no longer be changed.

Match context

The upcoming match between Gimnasia Concepción and Defensores de Vilelas is scheduled for 16.08.2026 18:30 in Torneo Federal A. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Gimnasia Concepción are in position 33 with 17 points after 19 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 16 scored and 18 conceded. The stored form sequence is LDWLL. Defensores de Vilelas are in position 24 with 19 points after 17 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 1 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 25 scored and 27 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWLWL.

Recent results

Gimnasia Concepción recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWLDWLLDWD. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 0.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 10% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Defensores de Vilelas recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDWLWLWLWL. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Over 3.5 goals — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Gimnasia Concepción or draw (1X) with 85% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 58.65%, 26.39% and 14.96%. The model momentum difference is 43.70 points in favour of Gimnasia Concepción. The input data quality score is 94/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.08 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -8.15%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Gimnasia Concepción at home is based on 6 matches. The team averages 2.50 yellow cards, 0.17 red cards and 2.67 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 66.7%, 50.0%, 16.7% and 16.7% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 16.7%. Season card data is available for 12 of 19 completed matches (63.2% coverage). The discipline profile for Defensores de Vilelas away from home is based on 3 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 66.7%, 33.3%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 5 of 18 completed matches (27.8% coverage).

Generated: 2026-08-16 17:02:15 · Locked: 2026-08-16 20:32:08

Post-match review

What happened in the match

The match between Gimnasia Concepción and Defensores de Vilelas ended 2-0. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Gimnasia Concepción at home was based on 6 matches, with averages of 2.5 yellow cards, 0.17 red cards and 2.67 total cards per match. In this game, Gimnasia Concepción received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.33 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 16.7%, and a red card in 16.7%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Defensores de Vilelas away from home was based on 3 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Defensores de Vilelas received 4 yellow cards and 2 red cards, 6 in total. That was 4 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 33.3% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Summary

Of 6 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.

Added after the match: 2026-08-16 22:52:04
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