Match context

The upcoming match between Independiente De Chivilcoy and El Linqueño is scheduled for 06.09.2026 19:00 in Torneo Federal A. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Independiente De Chivilcoy are in position 25 with 19 points after 18 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 15 scored and 22 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLDLL. El Linqueño are in position 26 with 19 points after 19 matches. The season record is 6 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 16 scored and 21 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWLDL.

Recent results

Independiente De Chivilcoy recorded 1 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWDLDDLDLL. The averages are 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. El Linqueño recorded 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DDDDWWWLDL. The averages are 1 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 20% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Independiente De Chivilcoy recorded 3 wins, there were 3 draws, and El Linqueño recorded 4 wins. The average total was 2.20 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 100%; Under 2.5 goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 50%; Both teams to score — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Independiente De Chivilcoy or draw (1X) with 86% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 58.53%, 27.14% and 14.33%. The model momentum difference is 44.20 points in favour of Independiente De Chivilcoy. The input data quality score is 85/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.08 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -7.48%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Independiente De Chivilcoy -0.25 / El Linqueño +0.25 supports Independiente De Chivilcoy by an average 4.75 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 5 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Independiente De Chivilcoy at home is based on 4 matches. The team averages 1.75 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.75 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 25.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 12 of 23 completed matches (52.2% coverage). The discipline profile for El Linqueño away from home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 2.43 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.43 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 85.7%, 28.6%, 14.3% and 14.3% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 14 of 23 completed matches (60.9% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Independiente De Chivilcoy and El Linqueño ended 1-0. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.2 goals, while this match produced 1. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Independiente De Chivilcoy at home was based on 4 matches, with averages of 1.75 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.75 total cards per match. In this game, Independiente De Chivilcoy received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.25 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 25% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for El Linqueño away from home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 2.43 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.43 total cards per match. In this game, El Linqueño received 4 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 4 in total. That was 1.57 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 28.6% of matches, 5+ in 14.3%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Independiente De Chivilcoy at -0.25. The stored market movement was 4.75 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-0, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.