Match context

The upcoming match between Defensores de Vilelas and Independiente De Chivilcoy is scheduled for 13.09.2026 18:30 in Torneo Federal A. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Defensores de Vilelas are in position 24 with 19 points after 16 matches. The season record is 6 wins, 1 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 21 scored and 26 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWLWL. Independiente De Chivilcoy are in position 25 with 19 points after 18 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 15 scored and 22 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLDLL.

Recent results

Defensores de Vilelas recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDLWDWLWLW. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Independiente De Chivilcoy recorded 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDWDLDDLDL. The averages are 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Under 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 1.5 goals — 50%; Both teams to score — 30%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Defensores de Vilelas to win with 63% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 63.14%, 24.91% and 11.95%. The model momentum difference is 51.19 points in favour of Defensores de Vilelas. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.42 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.34%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Defensores de Vilelas 0 / Independiente De Chivilcoy 0 supports Defensores de Vilelas by an average 21.06 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 4 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Defensores de Vilelas at home is based on 3 matches. The team averages 1.67 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.67 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 66.7%, 66.7%, 33.3%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 8 of 22 completed matches (36.4% coverage). The discipline profile for Independiente De Chivilcoy away from home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 2.13 yellow cards, 0.13 red cards and 2.25 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 25.0%, 25.0% and 25.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 12.5%. Season card data is available for 13 of 24 completed matches (54.2% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Defensores de Vilelas and Independiente De Chivilcoy ended 2-0. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Defensores de Vilelas at home was based on 3 matches, with averages of 1.67 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.67 total cards per match. In this game, Defensores de Vilelas received 4 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 4 in total. That was 2.33 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 33.3% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Independiente De Chivilcoy away from home was based on 8 matches, with averages of 2.13 yellow cards, 0.13 red cards and 2.25 total cards per match. In this game, Independiente De Chivilcoy received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.25 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 25% of matches, 5+ in 25%, and a red card in 12.5%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Defensores de Vilelas at 0. The stored market movement was 21.06 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 2-0, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 6 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 0 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.