Match context

The upcoming match between Ajax and Shelbourne is scheduled for 06.08.2026 18:00 in UEFA Europa Conference League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Ajax recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWWDWLDW. The averages are 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Shelbourne recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLWDDWDLDW. The averages are 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Both teams to score — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Ajax to win with 88% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 88.27%, 8.51% and 3.23%. The model momentum difference is 85.04 points in favour of Ajax. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.06 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.44%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 15, score 81/100, 80.55% group success rate across 2365 observations).

What happened in the match

The match between Ajax and Shelbourne ended 3-1. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 90%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 15. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 7 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.