Match context

The upcoming match between HNK Rijeka and Ilves is scheduled for 06.08.2026 18:45 in UEFA Europa Conference League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

HNK Rijeka recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWWWWDLW. The averages are 1.60 goals scored and 0.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Ilves recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWWLWWDLLD. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Under 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 50%; Over 2.5 goals — 30%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as HNK Rijeka to win with 82% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 82.04%, 13.13% and 4.84%. The model momentum difference is 77.20 points in favour of HNK Rijeka. The input data quality score is 93/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.12 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -8.12%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

What happened in the match

The match between HNK Rijeka and Ilves ended 1-0. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Summary

Of 5 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 0 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.