Match context

The upcoming match between Sao Paulo and Bolívar is scheduled for 19.08.2026 00:30 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Sao Paulo are in position 1 with 12 points after 6 matches. The season record is 3 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 6 scored and 1 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDDDW.

Recent results

Sao Paulo recorded 1 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DDLDLLWDDL. The averages are 1 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Bolívar recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDWWLWWWWD. The averages are 2.20 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 1 head-to-head matches, Sao Paulo recorded 0 wins, there were 1 draws, and Bolívar recorded 0 wins. The average total was 2 goals per match. Both teams scored in 100% of those matches, while 0% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Both teams to score — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Sao Paulo to win with 68% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 67.50%, 19.90% and 12.60%. The model momentum difference is 54.90 points in favour of Sao Paulo. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.40 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.50%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Sao Paulo 0 / Bolívar 0 supports Sao Paulo by an average 2.04 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 4 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Sao Paulo at home is based on 3 matches. The team averages 2.67 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.67 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 66.7%, 66.7%, 33.3% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 7 of 7 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Bolívar away from home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 1.00 yellow cards, 1.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 100.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 3 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Sao Paulo and Bolívar ended 3-1. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Sao Paulo at 0. The stored market movement was 2.04 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 3-1, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 7 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.