Match context

The upcoming match between Aston Villa W and Manchester City W is scheduled for 13.09.2026 17:30 in FA WSL. The listed venue is Villa Park, Birmingham. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Aston Villa W are in position 9 with 1 points after 1 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 1 scored and 1 conceded. The stored form sequence is D. Manchester City W are in position 2 with 3 points after 1 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 3 scored and 1 conceded. The stored form sequence is W.

Recent results

Aston Villa W recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLLLLWDLLL. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 2.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. Manchester City W recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWWLWWWD. The averages are 2.60 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Aston Villa W recorded 2 wins, there were 2 draws, and Manchester City W recorded 6 wins. The average total was 3.60 goals per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 3.5 goals — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 11.70; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Manchester City W to win with 70% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 12.40%, 17.71% and 69.90%. The model momentum difference is 57.50 points in favour of Manchester City W. The input data quality score is 94/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.33 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -7.04%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

What happened in the match

The match between Aston Villa W and Manchester City W ended 1-4. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.6 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.