Match context

The upcoming match between Arsenal W and Birmingham City W is scheduled for 17.10.2026 11:45 in FA WSL. The listed venue is Meadow Park, Borehamwood, Hertfordshire. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Arsenal W are in position 10 with 5 points after 5 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 4 scored and 6 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLDDW. Birmingham City W are in position 13 with 2 points after 5 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 7 scored and 12 conceded. The stored form sequence is LDLDL.

Recent results

Arsenal W recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDLWDDWWWW. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Birmingham City W recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLDLLDLWLL. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Arsenal W recorded 8 wins, there were 0 draws, and Birmingham City W recorded 2 wins. The average total was 3.60 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 12.05; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Arsenal W to win with 85% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 84.74%, 10.36% and 4.91%. The model momentum difference is 79.83 points in favour of Arsenal W. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.10 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.79%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Arsenal W at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 0.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 0.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 50.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 5 of 5 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Birmingham City W away from home is based on 3 matches. The team averages 0.33 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 0.33 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 33.3%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 5 of 5 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Arsenal W and Birmingham City W ended 1-1. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 12 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.6 goals, while this match produced 2. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 12.05 total corners. The match recorded 12 corners in total. The result remained within one corner of the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Arsenal W at home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 0.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 0.5 total cards per match. In this game, Arsenal W received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 0.5 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Birmingham City W away from home was based on 3 matches, with averages of 0.33 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 0.33 total cards per match. In this game, Birmingham City W received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 0.67 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Summary

Of 12 verifiable pre-match indicators, 8 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.