Match context

The upcoming match between Union Brescia and Athletic Carpi is scheduled for 21.08.2026 19:00 in Serie C - Girone A. The listed venue is Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Brescia. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Union Brescia recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDLDWDDWWW. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 20% finished with over 2.5 goals. Athletic Carpi recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWLLWLDDL. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 1 head-to-head matches, Union Brescia recorded 1 wins, there were 0 draws, and Athletic Carpi recorded 0 wins. The average total was 1 goals per match. Both teams scored in 0% of those matches, while 0% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Under 2.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 30%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Union Brescia to win with 70% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 69.63%, 19.06% and 11.31%. The model momentum difference is 58.31 points in favour of Union Brescia. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.30 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.48%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.20, score 78/100, 78.13% bucket win rate across 448 observations). Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 1.90).

What happened in the match

The match between Union Brescia and Athletic Carpi ended 3-1. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.2. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 1.9. The actual market outcome was Over 2.5. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 3 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.