Match context

The upcoming match between Union Brescia and Desenzano Calvina is scheduled for 06.09.2026 19:00 in Serie C - Girone A. The listed venue is Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Brescia. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Union Brescia are in position 1 with 6 points. The stored form sequence is WW. Desenzano Calvina are in position 12 with 1 points. The stored form sequence is D.

Recent results

Union Brescia recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWLDLDWDD. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Desenzano Calvina recorded 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDDDLDLWWD. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 0.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 10% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Under 2.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Union Brescia or draw (1X) with 84% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 59.31%, 24.20% and 16.50%. The model momentum difference is 42.81 points in favour of Union Brescia. The input data quality score is 85/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.10 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -8.15%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Union Brescia -0.5 / Desenzano Calvina +0.5 supports Union Brescia by an average 1.90 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (Bet365) with up to 3 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Union Brescia at home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 2 of 2 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Desenzano Calvina away from home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 1.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 2 of 2 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Union Brescia and Desenzano Calvina ended 1-0. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Union Brescia at home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Union Brescia received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Desenzano Calvina away from home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 1 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1 total cards per match. In this game, Desenzano Calvina received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 1 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Union Brescia at -0.5. The stored market movement was 1.9 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 1-0, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 7 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 1 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.