Match context

The upcoming match between Bari and Cavese is scheduled for 21.08.2026 19:00 in Serie C - Girone C. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Bari recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDDWWLLLWL. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Cavese recorded 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWWDDWDLDD. The averages are 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 10% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 4 head-to-head matches, Bari recorded 2 wins, there were 2 draws, and Cavese recorded 0 wins. The average total was 3.25 goals per match. Both teams scored in 75% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 2.5 goals — 90%; Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 50%; Over 1.5 goals — 50%; Both teams to score — 30%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Bari to win with 65% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 65.40%, 22.56% and 12.03%. The model momentum difference is 53.37 points in favour of Bari. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.38 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.74%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Bari +0.25 / Cavese -0.25 supports Cavese by an average 1.52 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 5 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Both Teams Score — Yes (odds 3).

What happened in the match

The match between Bari and Cavese ended 3-0. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 4 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.25 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 4 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 75%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Cavese at -0.25. The stored market movement was 1.52 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 3-0, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was BTTS Yes at odds of 3. The actual market outcome was BTTS No. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.