Match context

The upcoming match between Cerro Porteno and Club Sp. San Lorenzo is scheduled for 16.08.2026 13:00 in Division Profesional - Clausura. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Cerro Porteno are in position 8 with 3 points after 3 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 5 scored and 4 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLL. Club Sp. San Lorenzo are in position 11 with 1 points after 3 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 1 scored and 5 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLD.

Recent results

Cerro Porteno recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLWLLWWWLD. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Club Sp. San Lorenzo recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLDWDWLLL. The averages are 0.40 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 9 head-to-head matches, Cerro Porteno recorded 4 wins, there were 3 draws, and Club Sp. San Lorenzo recorded 2 wins. The average total was 3 goals per match. Both teams scored in 77.8% of those matches, while 44.4% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 100%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 40%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 7.94; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 93%; over 9.5 corners — 84%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Cerro Porteno to win with 66% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 66.23%, 22.52% and 11.26%. The model momentum difference is 54.97 points in favour of Cerro Porteno. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.36 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.93%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Cerro Porteno 0 / Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0 supports Club Sp. San Lorenzo by an average 1.22 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 8 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Cerro Porteno at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 50.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 4 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Club Sp. San Lorenzo away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.50 red cards and 2.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 50.0%, 50.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 50.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 4 completed matches (75.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Cerro Porteno and Club Sp. San Lorenzo ended 1-0. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 9 head-to-head meetings averaged 3 goals, while this match produced 1. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 9 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 77.8%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 9 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 55.6%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Cerro Porteno at home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Cerro Porteno received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Club Sp. San Lorenzo away from home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0.5 red cards and 2.5 total cards per match. In this game, Club Sp. San Lorenzo received 1 yellow cards and 1 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.5 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 50%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Club Sp. San Lorenzo at 0. The stored market movement was 1.22 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-0, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Odd. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 11 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.