Match context

The upcoming match between Penarol and Wanderers is scheduled for 05.08.2026 23:00 in Primera División - Apertura. The listed venue is Estadio Centenario, Montevideo. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Penarol are in position 4 with 27 points after 22 matches. The season record is 13 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 35 scored and 19 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDWLW. Wanderers are in position 10 with 20 points after 22 matches. The season record is 10 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 28 scored and 25 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWDWD.

Recent results

Penarol recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWDWLWDWWD. The averages are 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Wanderers recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWDWDDWLW. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Penarol recorded 6 wins, there were 3 draws, and Wanderers recorded 1 wins. The average total was 1.70 goals per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 20% finished with over 2.5 goals.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Penarol or draw (1X) with 83% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 59.08%, 23.48% and 17.44%. The model momentum difference is 41.64 points in favour of Penarol. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.17 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -3.41%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

What happened in the match

The match between Penarol and Wanderers ended 5-1. The game produced 6 goals in total. The first half contained 5 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 1.7 goals, while this match produced 6. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Summary

Of 3 verifiable pre-match indicators, 0 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.