Match context

The upcoming match between Club Nacional and Boston River is scheduled for 09.08.2026 21:30 in Primera División. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Club Nacional are in position 7 with 22 points after 22 matches. The season record is 11 wins, 2 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 34 scored and 29 conceded. The stored form sequence is LDWLW. Boston River are in position 13 with 17 points after 22 matches. The season record is 6 wins, 4 draws and 12 losses. The goals record is 19 scored and 30 conceded. The stored form sequence is LDDLL.

Recent results

Club Nacional recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWLLDWLWWD. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Boston River recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLDDLLLWWL. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Club Nacional recorded 8 wins, there were 1 draws, and Boston River recorded 1 wins. The average total was 2.70 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 100%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%; Under 2.5 goals — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 11.10; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Club Nacional or draw (1X) with 84% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 58.71%, 24.95% and 16.33%. The model momentum difference is 42.38 points in favour of Club Nacional. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.12 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.29%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 1.90).

What happened in the match

The match between Club Nacional and Boston River ended 1-2. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.7 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 1.9. The actual market outcome was Over 2.5. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.