Match context

The upcoming match between Independiente F.b.c. and Sportivo Ameliano is scheduled for 11.08.2026 19:30 in Copa Paraguay. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Independiente F.b.c. recorded 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DDDLDDLWLW. The averages are 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 90% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Sportivo Ameliano recorded 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDDDLLWDDW. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 4 head-to-head matches, Independiente F.b.c. recorded 1 wins, there were 1 draws, and Sportivo Ameliano recorded 2 wins. The average total was 2.75 goals per match. Both teams scored in 75% of those matches, while 75% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Both teams to score — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Under 2.5 goals — 70%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Sportivo Ameliano to win with 64% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 16.26%, 19.87% and 63.87%. The model momentum difference is 47.61 points in favour of Sportivo Ameliano. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.40 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.58%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

What happened in the match

The match between Independiente F.b.c. and Sportivo Ameliano ended 1-0. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 4 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.75 goals, while this match produced 1. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 4 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 75%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 4 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 75%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 90%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 3 aligned with the final result and 6 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.