Match context

The upcoming match between Toledo and Villarrubia is scheduled for 12.09.2026 17:00 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Toledo are in position 2 with 3 points after 1 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 4 scored and 2 conceded. The stored form sequence is W. Villarrubia are in position 8 with 1 points after 1 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 1 scored and 1 conceded. The stored form sequence is D.

Recent results

Toledo recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLDLLWWDWD. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Villarrubia recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWLDDWWLLL. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 8 head-to-head matches, Toledo recorded 4 wins, there were 2 draws, and Villarrubia recorded 2 wins. The average total was 2.13 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 37.5% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 2.5 goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Toledo to win with 61% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 61.41%, 25.24% and 13.35%. The model momentum difference is 48.06 points in favour of Toledo. The input data quality score is 74/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.50 with Betano. The stored estimated EV is -7.88%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

What happened in the match

The match between Toledo and Villarrubia ended 1-1. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 8 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.13 goals, while this match produced 2. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 8 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 62.5%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.