Match context

The upcoming match between Águilas and Lorca Deportiva is scheduled for 15.08.2026 18:00 in Friendlies Clubs. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Águilas recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DDWWWLWWWL. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Lorca Deportiva recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDLLDDLLWL. The averages are 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Águilas recorded 4 wins, there were 4 draws, and Lorca Deportiva recorded 2 wins. The average total was 1.70 goals per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 20% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Under 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 50%; Both teams to score — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Águilas or draw (1X) with 80% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 54.00%, 26.20% and 19.80%. The model momentum difference is 34.20 points in favour of Águilas. The input data quality score is 83/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.12 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.17%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Águilas 0 / Lorca Deportiva 0 supports Lorca Deportiva by an average 4.78 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Pinnacle, 1xBet) with up to 3 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

What happened in the match

The match between Águilas and Lorca Deportiva ended 1-0. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 1.7 goals, while this match produced 1. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Lorca Deportiva at 0. The stored market movement was 4.78 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-0, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.