Match context

The upcoming match between Aurora and Gualberto Villarroel SJ is scheduled for 05.09.2026 21:15 in Primera División. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Aurora are in position 8 with 24 points after 13 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 7 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 21 scored and 15 conceded. The stored form sequence is DDLLD. Gualberto Villarroel SJ are in position 15 with 14 points after 13 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 12 scored and 18 conceded. The stored form sequence is DDLLD.

Recent results

Aurora recorded 2 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DDDWLLDDWD. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Gualberto Villarroel SJ recorded 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWDDLLDDWD. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Aurora recorded 2 wins, there were 5 draws, and Gualberto Villarroel SJ recorded 3 wins. The average total was 3.30 goals per match. Both teams scored in 90% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 60%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 8.20; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 96%; over 9.5 corners — 86%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Aurora to win with 63% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 62.93%, 22.17% and 14.90%. The model momentum difference is 48.02 points in favour of Aurora. The input data quality score is 84/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.48 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.87%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Aurora 0 / Gualberto Villarroel SJ 0 supports Aurora by an average 3.05 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 6 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Aurora at home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 2.71 yellow cards, 0.29 red cards and 3.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 85.7%, 57.1%, 28.6% and 14.3% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 28.6%. Season card data is available for 15 of 16 completed matches (93.8% coverage). The discipline profile for Gualberto Villarroel SJ away from home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 3.29 yellow cards, 0.43 red cards and 3.71 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 71.4%, 57.1%, 57.1% and 57.1% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 28.6%. Season card data is available for 15 of 16 completed matches (93.8% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Aurora and Gualberto Villarroel SJ ended 3-0. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 10 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.3 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 90%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 8.2 total corners. The match recorded 10 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 96%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 86%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Aurora at home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 2.71 yellow cards, 0.29 red cards and 3 total cards per match. In this game, Aurora received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 57.1% of matches, 5+ in 14.3%, and a red card in 28.6%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Gualberto Villarroel SJ away from home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 3.29 yellow cards, 0.43 red cards and 3.71 total cards per match. In this game, Gualberto Villarroel SJ received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 1.71 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 57.1% of matches, 5+ in 57.1%, and a red card in 28.6%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Gualberto Villarroel SJ at 0. The stored market movement was 3.05 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 3-0, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 14 verifiable pre-match indicators, 9 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.