Match context

The upcoming match between Independiente Petrolero and Bolívar is scheduled for 06.09.2026 19:00 in Primera División. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Independiente Petrolero are in position 6 with 25 points after 13 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 19 scored and 20 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLWWD. Bolívar are in position 1 with 36 points after 13 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 28 scored and 13 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWWW.

Recent results

Independiente Petrolero recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWLWWWDWLL. The averages are 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. Bolívar recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWLWDWWL. The averages are 2.50 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Independiente Petrolero recorded 3 wins, there were 1 draws, and Bolívar recorded 6 wins. The average total was 3.10 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 2.5 goals — 90%; Both teams to score — 80%; Over 3.5 goals — 70%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 7.70; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 91%; over 9.5 corners — 81%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as draw or Bolívar (X2) with 80% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 19.53%, 20.62% and 59.85%. The model momentum difference is 40.32 points in favour of Bolívar. The input data quality score is 89/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.18 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.05%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 21, score 84/100, 84.32% group success rate across 1148 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Independiente Petrolero at home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 2.13 yellow cards, 0.25 red cards and 2.38 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 87.5%, 75.0%, 37.5%, 25.0% and 12.5% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 25.0%. Season card data is available for 15 of 17 completed matches (88.2% coverage). The discipline profile for Bolívar away from home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 2.57 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.57 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 85.7%, 42.9%, 14.3% and 14.3% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 15 of 17 completed matches (88.2% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Independiente Petrolero and Bolívar ended 0-4. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 3 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.1 goals, while this match produced 4. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 7.7 total corners. The match recorded 3 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 7.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 91%. The actual outcome was Under 8.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 81%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Independiente Petrolero at home was based on 8 matches, with averages of 2.13 yellow cards, 0.25 red cards and 2.38 total cards per match. In this game, Independiente Petrolero received 4 yellow cards and 1 red cards, 5 in total. That was 2.62 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 37.5% of matches, 5+ in 12.5%, and a red card in 25%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Bolívar away from home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 2.57 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.57 total cards per match. In this game, Bolívar received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 2.57 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 42.9% of matches, 5+ in 14.3%, and a red card in 0%.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 21. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 12 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.