Match context

The upcoming match between Parma and Catania is scheduled for 14.08.2026 16:00 in Coppa Italia. The listed venue is Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Parma recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDDWLLLWWD. The averages are 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 10% finished with over 2.5 goals. Catania recorded 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWLDDDDLLW. The averages are 1 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 8 head-to-head matches, Parma recorded 1 wins, there were 4 draws, and Catania recorded 3 wins. The average total was 2.25 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 37.5% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Under 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Parma to win with 72% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 71.94%, 18.71% and 9.35%. The model momentum difference is 62.59 points in favour of Parma. The input data quality score is 98/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.30 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.47%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.22, score 77/100, 77.12% bucket win rate across 354 observations).

What happened in the match

The match between Parma and Catania ended 2-0. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 8 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.25 goals, while this match produced 2. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 8 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 62.5%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.22. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 1 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.