Match context

The upcoming match between Fiorentino and Virtus is scheduled for 04.09.2026 19:15 in Campionato. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Fiorentino recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWLLWLWDWW. The averages are 1.90 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Virtus recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWLLWLWWDW. The averages are 2 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Fiorentino recorded 1 wins, there were 2 draws, and Virtus recorded 7 wins. The average total was 3.10 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 70%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Virtus to win with 66% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 12.73%, 21.74% and 65.53%. The model momentum difference is 52.80 points in favour of Virtus. The input data quality score is 89/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.36 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.88%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

What happened in the match

The match between Fiorentino and Virtus ended 0-1. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.1 goals, while this match produced 1. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 2 aligned with the final result and 6 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.