Match context

The upcoming match between SC Covilha and Mortágua is scheduled for 30.08.2026 16:00 in Taça de Portugal. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

SC Covilha recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDWDDLWWLL. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Mortágua recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWLLWLDLL. The averages are 1 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as SC Covilha or draw (1X) with 82% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 55.85%, 26.28% and 17.87%. The model momentum difference is 37.98 points in favour of SC Covilha. The input data quality score is 94/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.12 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -8.02%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair SC Covilha 0 / Mortágua 0 supports Mortágua by an average 1.51 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 2 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

What happened in the match

The match between SC Covilha and Mortágua ended 0-1. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Mortágua at 0. The stored market movement was 1.51 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 0-1, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 6 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.